I like to think that everyone will buy Macs. I buy Macs regularly and just bought one for my sister- and brother-in-law so they can join me in my OS X joy. But folks who say Apple can hit 50% market share in notebooks next year are deluding themselves.
Jeremy Toeman believes in this delusion and his points are these:
1. Virtually all MacBook owners will recommend most MacBook models when asked
2. Virtually no Vista notebook owners will recommend most models from any given manufacturer when asked
OK. Number one I can get behind. Mac buyers make Mac buyers. But this is like snake vodka buyers “making” snake vodka buyers out of their friends — sure It might taste great, but that shizz has a snake in it!
Number two is a pipe dream. Vista is a good OS. It’s solid and will eventually take over until 2045 when Windows 7 comes out. People use Windows and they’ll use Windows laptops.
Then he goes on to posit that notebooks are “personal” devices. Not the laptops I know. The laptops I know are fleet-released boring-books built by committee and sold in bulk to corporations for a pittance. Unless you count the notebook market as “people passionate about mobile computing,” you’re always bumping into the old saw that “No one ever got fired for buying Microsoft.”
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We all know OS X rocks my body and my MacBook Pro is super. But 50% is a big number and Apple is fighting Sony, HP, and Dell in this market. If they do get a 50% market share, I’ll eat my hat, provided I can wear a hat made of meatloaf.