Rivian’s best-case guess for 2025 sales is a 16% drop from last year

Rivian now expects to deliver no more than 43,500 electric vehicles by the end of 2025, which would represent a nearly 16% drop from last year’s sales.

The company announced the new guidance for investors on Thursday alongside production and delivery figures for the third quarter of this year. Rivian saw deliveries jump to 13,201 vehicles, up from 10,661 and 8,640 in the second and first quarters, respectively. The company also built 10,720 EVs in the quarter.

That’s a good recovery from a slow start to the year. But the company has now all but confirmed that this year will see fewer Rivian vehicles delivered than in 2024 and in 2023, when it moved just over 50,000 electric vehicles.

Rivian’s struggle to grow sales comes at a critical time for the company. It’s in the midst of preparing to launch what is supposed to be its most affordable — and most popular — vehicle next year, the R2 SUV. The company expects to build and sell hundreds of thousands of these, and has poured capital into expanding its Normal, Illinois factory to build them. Rivian has also broken ground on a brand new factory in Georgia where it will build the R2 and its hatchback sibling, the R3.

Rivian came into this year optimistic it could match 2024’s sales, telling investors that it expected to deliver between 46,000 and 51,000 vehicles. Rivian sold 51,579 vehicles in 2024.

But by May, as President Trump implemented sweeping and often-changing tariffs, the company lowered its estimate, saying it would deliver between 40,000 and 46,000. Rivian said, at the time, that the reason for the drop was the “evolving trade regulation, policies, tariffs and the overall impact these items may have on consumer sentiment and demand.”

The company again “narrowed” that range on Thursday to between 41,500 and 43,500 vehicles.

Electric vehicles are going through a challenging time in the U.S., especially as the Trump administration becomes increasingly hostile to electric vehicles and renewable energy. Major automakers are playing along. Most have delayed or outright canceled plans for new EVs, and they’ve also expressed support for the administration’s attempt to roll back emissions regulations.

Despite all that, most of those same automakers saw a huge boost in EV sales during the third quarter of this year as customers rushed to take advantage of the expiring $7,500 federal EV tax credit. The credit’s demise was such a strong motivator that it helped Tesla deliver a record number of vehicles.

Rivian may not have enjoyed the same credit phase-out shopping rush as other automakers since the company’s vehicles were only eligible for the subsidy if they were leased.

Still, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe has expressed optimism about his company’s chances in a post-credit world. Speaking to InsideEVs in August, Scaringe said he believes some automakers were skewing the market with money-losing EVs in order to reap regulatory credits they could sell to the competition. Without the federal subsidy, that game becomes a losing proposition, he said.

“What I think will happen as we play out the rest of the 2020s, like through 2029, 2030, is you’re going to have sort of a vacuum of competition, and the pure-play EV-focused companies — Rivian, Tesla, there’s not very many — because they’re completely and fully focused on electrification, will have the advantage of a pretty thin competitive playing field,” he said.