The Robotaxi reveal is less than an hour away, and analysts and investors are consistent about one thing: they expect Tesla to show us a prototype and a demo, but probably not a fully functioning, market-ready autonomous vehicle.
The location of the event – a Hollywood studio – signals that CEO Elon Musk might be doing what Musk does best: putting on a show. Musk likes to paint pictures for what the future of Tesla might bring, which has often resulted in timelines that the automaker is seldom able to stick to.
(See: “We will have over a million robotaxis on the road” by 2020; and “we aspire to reach volume production in 2024.”)
Analysts, even the bullish ones, seem to want to take the whole event with a grain of salt. Ada Jonas of Morgan Stanley, who has named Tesla his “top pick” in the automotive space, has advised clients to “keep expectations well managed.”
Deepwater Asset Management predicts that in addition to a Cybercab prototype, Tesla will provide previews (but crucially not a prototype) for the $25,000 EV, which fans are calling the Model 2. Analysts Gene Munster and Brian Baker said they expect the Model 2 to have a similar look and feel to the Cybercab, likely based on past comments from Tesla that the two would share a vehicle platform.
Deepwater also thinks Tesla will provide details on a Cybervan, which would be a fully autonomous passenger van.
Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu also thinks Tesla will unveil a lower cost vehicle slated for start of production by next year. Yu wrote that it would be a “Model 2” or a cheaper or smaller Model 3 variant.
Back when Tesla was laying off big chunks of staff in April, a source at Tesla told TechCrunch that while the push at the company was for autonomy, the automaker had not stopped simultaneously working on a cheaper EV.
Garrett Nelson of CFRA offered a note of skepticism amid the hype.
“We think this [robotaxi fleet] is still several years away and numerous technological hurdles, safety tests, and regulatory approvals are still standing in the way,” Nelson wrote last week.
Dan Ives at Wedbush thinks this will be a make or break moment for Musk and Tesla, and is optimistic that the company will provide more details not just for the long-term vision, but also on how to address “near-term pain points” that investors in the self-driving arena have seen.
Ives thinks Tesla’s next phase of growth – centered around AI, FSD, and its Dojo supercomputer – represents $1 trillion in value.
